Bond Vigilantes Forecast World Cup Knockout Stage

Following the conclusion of the semi-finals, the stage is finally set for the World Cup Final between Spain and Argentina on Sunday. The model is predicting Spain to become champions for the second time, beating Argentina 2-1 within 90 minutes. While all fans fear the possibility of a dreaded penalty shootout, the BV team might have an insight into a possible outcome should the final go all the way. The semi-finals proved to be a stumbling block for the predictive model, which failed to call either tie correctly. England suffered particular heartbreak, giving away a 1-0 lead in their match. Despite these misses, the long-term track record remains strong, with the knockout stages producing 26 out of 30 correct outcomes overall.

The quarter-finals provided another entertaining round of games where the favourites, just about, found a way to progress. The model recorded two exact scores and four correct calls on teams to advance, bringing the knockout stage tally at that point to 26 out of 28 outcomes correctly called. The model’s only failures in predicting the quarter-finals were the early exits of Germany and Brazil. The round of 16 was equally dramatic, featuring Cape Verde taking Argentina to Extra Time and Norway ending Brazil’s hopes of a 6th World Cup. England also faced a dogged final half hour of defending at the Azteca to protect their lead. Throughout this round, the BV World Cup Model predicted 75% of results correctly, with an 87.5% hit rate on teams to go through, including five exact scores and correct calls for Morocco, Belgium, and Egypt to advance after extra time and penalties.

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Earlier in the tournament, the round of 32 saw comfortable qualification for Spain and Switzerland, while Portugal vs Croatia provided significant drama involving an extra-time winner and a VAR-ruled equaliser. The model predicted the right team to qualify in 12 out of 13 games during this phase. Specific matches in the early knockout stages saw England made to work against DR Congo, with Gordon providing much-needed energy and Kane saving the team from an early exit. Senegal looked set to face the USA before an inspired Belgian comeback, where Tielemans earned and scored a penalty in extra time. The USA then stepped past Bosnia with a 2-0 win.