Meloni’s Historic Tenure Delivers Mixed Results
Meloni leads Italy’s longest‑serving government as it marks its fourth anniversary, a milestone in a nation where cabinets have averaged just over a year since World War II.
Before Meloni’s tenure, Italian cabinets lasted an average of just 13 months, showing how the current four‑year stretch breaks a long‑standing pattern.
Longevity as a political statement
The cabinet’s durability is presented by officials as evidence that Italy can be a stable partner in Europe, a claim that resonates amid frequent government turnovers across the continent.
When she assumed office at the Chigi Palace in October 2022, many feared a democratic backslide; those anxieties have not materialised, according to political scientists.
“The image of Italy has changed, and so has the image of Giorgio Meloni,” said Nicola Procaccini, the prime minister’s representative in Brussels and co‑chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists group.
Analysts, however, argue that staying in power has not translated into substantive reforms. “The durability can be considered the main political win for a government that can’t show off any other significant reforms,” observed Nicoletta Pirozzi, vice director of Istituto Affari Internazionali.
Her shift from a confrontational tone to a collaborative Brussels strategy has been described as a rebranding.
Critics note that public debt remains high, productivity low, and a steady outflow of young people continues, with more than 100,000 Italians leaving the country in 2025 alone.
One flat paragraph: the budget deficit fell from 8.6 % of GDP in 2022 to 3.1 % in 2025, while unemployment dropped modestly, especially among women.
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Economic record and its limits
Proponents point to the narrowing deficit and improving bond yields as signs of fiscal prudence. Government bonds, once trading above French yields, have recently offered lower returns, suggesting market confidence.
Nevertheless, the 3.1 % deficit still exceeds the European Union’s 3 % ceiling. Moreover, since 2021 Italy has drawn over €225 billion from its EU recovery plan, complicating the assessment of domestic policy impact.
Household purchasing power remains 8.6 % lower than in 2019, according to the National Statistics Institute, showing the gap between macro‑indicators and everyday life.
“Italy’s problems are fairly straightforward,” said Lorenzo De Sio, professor at Luiss University. “Salaries are among the lowest in Europe, while prices in some Italian cities have become among the highest, largely driven by tourism.”
Deutsche Bank Research ranks Rome and Milan among European capitals where rents are least affordable, a finding that highlights the cost‑of‑living pressure on residents.
For ordinary Italians, the government’s staying power means predictable budget cycles, yet the absence of deep structural changes leaves many waiting for real improvements in wages and services.
Migration policy and European influence
Meloni’s handling of migration in 2023 illustrates her pragmatic approach. When 10,000 migrants arrived on Lampedusa, she chose to seek broader EU cooperation rather than a unilateral response.
Procaccini recalled her decision: “She could have either let migrants in… or, alternatively, overreacted…,” noting that her measured stance avoided both domestic defeat and accusations of fascism.
The strategy contributed to the EU’s Pact on Migration and Asylum, which entered into force in June and includes a controversial processing center for asylum‑seekers in Albania, launched by Italy in 2024.
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Human‑rights groups have criticized the Albanian facility for lacking adequate safeguards, arguing that externalizing migration risks compromising migrant protections.
MEP Sandro Gozi praised the outcome as turning “a national failure into a European one,” reflecting the diplomatic credit Meloni’s government secured on the continent.
Political challenges ahead
Domestic opposition scored a setback for the government when a 2024 referendum on judicial reform failed, stalling a plan that aimed to separate career tracks for judges and prosecutors.
“She stopped short of accomplishing her political project in full,” said Pirozzi, adding that the reform was intended to pave the way for broader changes to Italy’s political system.
Other pending initiatives include the “Premierato,” which would expand the prime minister’s powers, and an electoral reform that would grant a sizable majority bonus to the winning bloc.
Within the governing coalition, pressure mounts from the far‑right. Former general Roberto Vannacci, now leading the National Future party, advocates restoring ties with Russia and endorses patriarchal policies, positions that clash with Meloni’s EU‑aligned stance.
Procaccini explained her calculus: “She doesn’t just want to win the elections. She wants to govern and she knows that if she had to win the elections at the price of an unstable coalition, it would be better not to win them.”
As the government enters its final year, the balance between maintaining coalition cohesion and delivering the promised reforms will define Meloni’s legacy.
